The first major is just around the corner this week. The starting field is relatively small with 91 players and the venue is Augusta National Golf Club, as it is every year. With the help of the performances of the past weeks as well as the statistics of the past years we can identify the biggest favorites. At the same time, some players can also be excluded as favorites. However, it should not be forgotten: “Unexpected often comes”…
Especially in focus at the US Masters 2022
Future hope Viktor Hovland already proved several times in his young years that he has what it takes to become a champion. Hovland leads the DP World Tour Rankings this season with just three tournaments played, and he currently sits seventh in the FedEx Cup rankings thanks to one win and four top-10 finishes. He finished the 2019 Masters as the top amateur and just missed the top 20 (T21) last year.
Australian Cameron Smith has already prevailed in two significant tournaments this year. Tournament number 1 of 2022, the Tournament of Champions in Hawaii, was won by Smith with a record score of 34 strokes under par. He also took the winning prize money in the unofficial “fifth” major, the Players Championship. With these two victories, he is currently in third place in the FedEx Cup. Smith is definitely a dangerous competitor in this form.
Since the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, no one has been able to get past the name Scottie Scheffler. With his third win in six weeks, he reached the top of the world rankings two weeks before the Masters. There is no denying that the American is in absolute top form. Although he “only” finished T18 at the last Masters, he made it into the top 10 at the other 2021 Major tournaments.
The absolute favorite is, among others, Jon Rahm, who until last week had been at the top of the world rankings for a total of 43 weeks. Major tournaments seem to suit him particularly well: The Spaniard has finished in the top 10 in each of his last four Masters appearances, while he also played his way into the top 10 twice in the other three majors last year and achieved his first major victory at the US Open. Based on these results, Rahm is not the top favorite for no reason.
Collin Morikawa is the high-flyer of 2020/21. At just 25 years of age, he is already a two-time major winner and has worked his way up to second place in the world rankings thanks to numerous victories and placings. The Masters is the major at which he has been least successful in his still young career. His best result so far was a shared 18th place last year, which he will try to beat this year.
Looking at the Masters stats
In addition to the five favorites listed, there are several other players who, according to various statistics, will have the best chance of winning the 2022 US Masters. For example, each of the last ten Masters winners was in the top 25 of the official world golf rankings in the week of their victory. Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Billy Horschel, Louis Oosthuizen, Abraham Ancer, Tyrrell Hatton, Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Joaquin Niemann, Daniel Berger, Tony Finau, Harris English, Matt Fitzpatrick and Paul Casey also have good chances.
The stage is set. #themasters pic.twitter.com/vjJnoJqiXd
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 3, 2022
Two players were excluded in this enumeration: Sam Burns and Hideki Matsuyama. Sam Burns is competing at the Masters for the first time, making him a newcomer to Augusta. At 86 Masters, only one rookie has managed to win the tournament so far, so the chances for players competing for the first time are pretty slim. This also applies to Harold Varner III, Sepp Straka, Tom Hoge and JJ Spaun, among others. Hideki Matsuyama will start as defending champion at the 2022 Masters, which is why he is denied a favorite position. Only three players have managed to defend the title in the entire Masters era.
Looking at the Strokes Gained statistics, some players get another plus point. Eight of the last ten Masters winners were at least 1.5 strokes per round better from tee to green than their competitors in the three months leading up to the Masters. Jon Rahm, Joqauin Niemann, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rory McIlroy, Daniel Berger, Paul Casey and Viktor Hovland all figure in that trend.