Major champion and social media star, Bryson DeChambeau, is currently running an exciting challenge on his social channels: He wants to hit an ace from around 100 yards – over his house and onto a short flag on the green behind his house. DeChambeau himself stands in the driveway of his property on a hitting mat fixed with kettlebells. There are just so many shots per day, which means: on day 1 there is one shot, on day 2 there are two attempts and so on. To give his fans the best possible experience, the American has set up several cameras – including one on the roof – as well as a tracking device.
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He has now reached day 15 of the challenge and there have already been several close results, for example on days 1 and 13, as the 31-year-old almost holed his ball with the very first shot of the challenge. On day 13, things got really close again when his ball bounced in and out of the hole after shot 7.
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What is the probability of hitting an ace?
Lou Stagner, the ‘Golf Stat Pro’, has worked out how high the chance of an ace is in this starting position. At a distance of around 100 yards, the chance of a Tour pro making a hole-out from the fairway is 0.2 per cent, according to Lou Stagner. In Bryson’s situation, the probability is different because he always hits the same shot from 100 yards and from a flat mat. In this case, the probability – according to Stagner’s estimate – is 0.57 per cent for one shot. Stagner has now extrapolated these figures and the result is that the chance of him hitting an ace by day 50 is 99.9 per cent. However, these figures are only an approximate guess by the expert, so we will see how long Bryson DeChambeau still needs.
The challenge is certainly attracting a lot of attention, including from the US Open, where DeChambeau triumphed in 2024. In the comments on the Day 15 video, the tournament’s official Instagram channel asked him whether he would like to do this challenge via the clubhouse in Oakmont, the venue for the 2025 US Open.